مطالعات خاورمیانه

مطالعات خاورمیانه

اژدها در صحرا: رقابت آمریکا و چین در کشورهای عربی خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
آرش رئیسی نژاد 1
علی نعمت پور 2
1 گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران
2 محقق پسا دکتری Research fellow at the Middle East Center at FIU
چکیده
راه ابریشم نوین یا ابتکار کمربند و جاده، نمود و نماد اعمال قدرت چین در ورای مرزهای خود است. ریشه این ابتکار هم در پاسخ به چین برای رهایی از محاصره شدگی توسط استراتژی آمریکایی چرخش به سوی آسیا و هم سیاست پکن برای جبران توسعه نامتوازن درونی و یافتن بازارهای نوین با تکیه بر قدرت ژئواکونومیک خود بود. از این دریچه، راه ابریشم نوین مهم‌ترین مسئله در چیدمان قدرت در نظم نوین جهانی خواهد بود. "رقابت آمریکا و چین در خاورمیانه عربی چگونه و با چه سازوکاری بر چیدمان قدرت در سطح بین‌الملل تأثیر می‌گذارند؟" این پرسش بنیادین و محوری نوشته پیش‌روست که خوانشی تحلیلی از رقابت چینی-آمریکایی در خاورمیانه عربی را نمایان می‌کند. نوشته با تکیه بر روش ردیابی فرایند و تاکید بر ژئوپلتیک راه به اهمیت چرخش به سوی آمریکا و سپس پاسخ چین در استراتژی پیش به سوی غرب در شکل‌گیری راه ابریشم نوین می پردازد. همچنین، نوشته روند مهم "کمربند را رها کن، جاده را زیر فشار قرار ده" را با ذکر جزییات نشان داده و دست آخر پیامدهای آن بر رقابت جهانی چین و آمریکا مورد بررسی قرار خواهد‌گرفت. نوشته نتیجه می‌گیرد که در "سطح" تلاش پکن برای راه‌اندازی و پیشبرد راه ابریشم نوین در رقابت با واشینگتن را می‌توان در رقابتی ژئواکونومیکی دید. در "عمق" اما، راه ابریشم نوین نبرد ژئوپلیتیکی میان چین و آمریکا برای چیرگی جهانی در سدۀ بیست‌ویکم میلادی خواهد بود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
"ابتکار کمربند و جاده"
"راه ابریشم نوین"
"ژئوپلیتیک راه"
  • Abe, S. (2007). Confluence of the two seas. Speech by HE Mr. Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan at the Parliament of the Republic of India, 22.
  • Abe, S. (2012). Asia’s democratic security diamond. Project Syndicate, 27.
  • AKYILDIZ, Ş. (2022). Frankopan, Peter. The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World, London: Bloomsbury, 2019, 368 pp, 38154/cjas.36>.
  • Ap, T., Rizzo, J., & Liptak, K. (2016). Obama lifts US arms ban on Vietnam. CNN Politics, 24.
  • Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. Harvard University Press.
  • Blanchard, B. (2019). Saudi Arabia strikes $10 billion China deal, talks de-radicalization with Reuters, February, 22.
  • Blasko, D. J., & Fravel, M. T. (2012). Much ado about the Sansha garrison.
  • Blinken, Antony. (2015) Brookings Institute, Transcript of speech, 31 March 2015. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-united-states-and-central-asia-an-enduring-vision-for-partnership-and-connectivity-in-the-21st-century/
  • Brewster, D. (2010). The Australia–India Security Declaration. Security Challenges, 6(1), 1-
  • Brzezinski, Z. (2016). The grand chessboard: American primacy and its geostrategic Basic books, 10.2307/1149289>.
  • Buzan, Barry and Ole Waver. Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. (Cambridge University Press, 4 Dec 2003). P.187.
  • Callahan, W. A. (2016). China’s “Asia Dream” the belt road initiative and the new regional Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 1(3), 226-243, 10.1177/2057891116647806>.
  • Chatham House. "What is Geoeconomics" (PDF). Chatham Chatham House. Retrieved 9 August 2020.
  • Chellaney, Brahma. "Different playbooks aimed at balancing Asia’s powers". The Japan Times, 3 November 2008.
  • "China's growing empire of ports abroad is mainly about trade, not aggression". The Economist. 8 June 2013.
  • Clinton, H. (2011). Remarks at the new Silk Road ministerial meeting. US Department of State, 22, 2009-2017. Available at: https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/09/173807.htm
  • El Gamal, R., Aizhu, C., & Zhang, M. (2019). Saudi Aramco shifts strategy in China to boost oil sales. Reuters, March, 14.
  • Etzioni, Amitai. (2013) “No Pivot to Asia,” The Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2274329
  • Friedberg, Aaron L. (2012) “Bucking Beijing: An Alternative US China Policy,” Foreign Aff., 91, 48. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41720860
  • Foster, J. B. (2006). The new geopolitics of empire. MONTHLY REVIEW-NEW YORK- , 57(8), 1, 14452/MR-057-08-2006-01_1>.
  • Frankopan, P. (2017). The silk roads: A new history of the world. Vintage.
  • George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennett. (2005) Case studies and theory development in the social sciences. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Githaiga, N. M., Burimaso, A., Wang, B., & Ahmed, S. M. (2019). The belt and road initiative: Opportunities and risks for Africa’s connectivity. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 5(01), 117-141, 1142/S2377740019500064>.
  • Haushofer, K., Tambs, L. A., & Brehm, E. J. (2002). An English translation and analysis of Major General Karl Ernst Haushofer's Geopolitics of the Pacific Ocean: studies on the relationship between geography and history. (No Title).
  • Gordon, T. (1994). Trend impact analysis. Futures Research Methodology, 1–21.
  • Hillman, J. E. (2020). The emperor’s new road: China and the project of the century. Yale University Press.
  • Kaplan, R. D. (2019). The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century. Random House Trade Paperbacks.
  • Kaplan, R. D. (2011). Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the future of American power. Random House Trade Paperbacks.
  • Kaplan, Robert. D. The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate, Random House Trade Paperbacks; Reprint edition (September 10, 2013).
  • Kaplan, Robert D. The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century, Random House (March 6, 2018).
  • Kashmeri, S. A. (2019). China's grand strategy: weaving a new silk road to global primacy. Bloomsbury Publishing
  • Khurana, G. S. (2008). China's ‘String of Pearls’ in the Indian Ocean and its security Strategic Analysis, 32(1), 1-39, 10.1080/09700160701355485>.
  • Le, Matthew (27 February 2009). "U.S. complains about China's human rights record". Associated Press.
  • Lee, John, "Bush legacy: Better US-India relations." The Straits Times (Singapore), 8 October 2009; Editorial: "China left out in India-Japan pact". The Business Times Singapore, 28 October 2008.
  • Luttwak, E. N. (1990). From geopolitics to geo-economics: Logic of conflict, grammar of The national interest, (20), 17-23.
  • Maçães, B. (2021). Belt and road: A Chinese world order. Oxford University Press.
  • McGregor, Richard (26 July 2009). "Beijing in uneasy embrace of the greenback". Financial Times.
  • Mahbubani, K. (2020). Has China won? the Chinese challenge to American primacy. Hachette UK.
  • Marlow, I. (2021). What is the ‘Quad’ and should China fear it. Bloomberg. URL: https://www.bloombergquint.com/quicktakes/what-is-the-quad-and-should-china-fear-it-quicktake (дата обращения 13.04. 2021). Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/what-is-the-quad-and-should-china-fear-it-quicktake
  • Mendes, C. A. (Ed.). (2018). China's new Silk Road: an emerging world order. Routledge.
  • Mesbahi, M. (2011). Free and confined: Iran and the international system. Iranian review of foreign affairs, 2(5), 9-34. Available at: http://irfajournal.csr.ir/article_123386.html
  • Miller, T. (2019). China's Asian dream: Empire building along the new silk road. Bloomsbury Publishing.
  • Nixon, Richard (January 15, 1992). Seize the Moment: America's Challenge in a One-superpower World (First ed.). Simon & Schuster. 
  • Paraskova, T. (2019). Saudi Aramco boosts oil investment in China’s downstream. Oilprice. com, 5.
  • Rej, Abhijnan (17 March 2021). "Indo-Pacific Takeaways from the UK 'Integrated Review". The Diplomat; Gudrun Wacker (9 March 2021). Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/three-indo-pacific-takeaways-from-the-uk-integrated-review/
  • Reisinezhad, Arash. 2018. The Shah of Iran, the Iraqi Kurds, and the Lebanese Shia. Palgrave-Mac-Millan.
  • Rolland, N. (2017). China's “Belt and Road Initiative”: Underwhelming or game-changer? The Washington Quarterly, 40(1), 127-142, 1080/0163660X.2017.1302743>.
  • Ross, R. S. (2012). The problem with the pivot: Obama's new Asia policy is unnecessary and counterproductive. Foreign Aff., 91, 70. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2012-11-01/problem-pivot
  • Starr, S. F., & Kuchins, A. C. (2010). The key to success in Afghanistan: A modern silk road Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. Available at: https://www.silkroadstudies.org/publications/silkroad-papers-and-monographs/item/13098-the-key-to-success-in-afghanistan-a-modern-silk-road-strategy.html
  • Simpfendorfer, B. (2011). The New Silk Road: How a rising Arab world is turning away from the West and Rediscovering China (Vol. 178). New York, NY: Palgrave
  • Szechenyi, N., & Hosoya, Y. (2019). Working toward a free and open Indo-Pacific. Alliance Policy Coordination Brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10.
  • Wang, J. S. (2012). Marching West, China's Geo-strategic Re-balancing [西进, 中国地缘战略的再平衡]. Huanqiu Times, 2012-10, available at: https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJxoLS
  • Wang, J. S. (2012). Marching West, China's Geo-strategic Re-balancing [西进, 中国地缘战略的再平衡]. Huanqiu Times, 2012-10. available at: https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJxoLS
  • Wang, J. (2014). 6 “Marching Westwards”: The Rebalancing of China’s Geostrategy. In The World in 2020 According to China (pp. 129-136). Brill, 1163/9789004273917_008>.
  • Shahriar, S. (2019). The Belt and Road initiative: what will China offer the world in its rise, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/02185377.2019.1594324
  • Wang, Y. (2016). Belt and road initiative: What will China offer the world in its rise. New World Press.
  • Yiwei, W. (2015). One belt one road: Opportunities for Europe-China cooperation. Europe’s World, 13. Available at: https://www.friendsofeurope.org/insights/one-belt-one-road-opportunities-for-europe-china-cooperation/
  • Zimmerman, T. (2015). The New Silk Roads: China, the US, and the Future of Central Asia (pp. 1-26). New York, NY, USA: Center on International Cooperation. Available at: https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/zimmerman_new_silk_road_final_2.pdf
  • Zhao, L. (2015). Yidai yilu: Zhongguo de wenmingxing jueqi. [One Belt, One Road: China’s Civilizational Rise]. Beijing: Zhongxin chubanshe.
  • Zheng, Y. (2015) “Weilai sanshinian: Gaige xinchangshe xiade guanjian wenti. [30 Years into the Future: Key Issues for the New Normal of Reform],” Beijing: Zhongxin chubanshe.
  • Baker McKenzie, Belt & Road: Opportunity & Risk The prospects and perils of building China’s New Silk Road, Silk Road Associates, 2018.
  • "Europe and the Indo-Pacific: comparing France, Germany and the Netherlands". Elcano Royal Institute. Available at: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/europe-and-the-indo-pacific-comparing-france-germany-and-the-netherlands/
  • "Quad Leaders' Joint Statement: "The Spirit of the Quad". White House. 12 March 2021. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/12/quad-leaders-joint-statement-the-spirit-of-the-quad/
  • "National Security Strategy of the United States of America". whitehouse.gov. December 2017 – via National Archives; Watanabe, Tsuneo "Nabe" (30 October 2019). "Japan's Rationale for the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy [1]". International Information Network Analysis and The Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
  • "Summary of the National Defense Strategy". Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2018.
  • https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2018/7/31/trumps-trade-war-sees-chinese-gains-in-the-gulf; https://agsiw.org/beyond-energy-the-future-of-china-gcc-economic-ties/;
  • https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/408347-kuwait-china-ink-deal-to-move-forward-with-silk-city-project.
  • https://agsiw.org/the-curious-case-of-chinas-kuwaiti-concession/
  • The Global Times, Bilateral trade between China and the UAE, July 27, 2018, available at https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1111674.shtml
  • https://www.thenational.ae/business/uae-china-to-set-up-10bn-joint-strategic-investment-fund-1.105808
  • http://govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/201902/13/WS5c63c755498e27e33803839e/china-uae-industrial-capacity cooperation-demonstration-zone.html
  • https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease_8232/202010/t20201010_1244045.html
  • https://meedmashreqconstructionhub.com/404.php
  • http://www.china.org.cn/world/2016-01/14/content_37573547.htm
مطالعات خاورمیانه
دوره 31، شماره 1
بهار 1403
صفحه 5-34