Abstract
The present study aimed to analyze the trend of precipitation changes in the Middle East during the period 1984–2023. In this research, annual precipitation data for 16 countries were extracted from the PERSIANN satellite-based database and validated against ground observations. To examine the temporal behavior of precipitation, statistical trend tests, abrupt change detection, and clustering methods were employed. The results revealed that most countries located in the southern and southwestern parts of the region, including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, experienced a decreasing trend in annual precipitation. In contrast, northern countries and Mediterranean areas such as Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan showed an increasing or relatively stable trend. This heterogeneous pattern indicates that climate change has manifested unevenly across the Middle East. The decline in precipitation in southern and southeastern countries is likely to exacerbate water scarcity, reduce agricultural productivity, and increase climate-induced migration. Conversely, the increase or stability of precipitation in northern countries such as Turkey and Lebanon may intensify geopolitical tensions over the exploitation of shared water resources. Overall, the findings highlight that climate change in the region not only entails environmental and economic challenges but also generates significant social and political consequences. Therefore, it is essential for Middle Eastern countries to adopt cooperative strategies in water resource management, promote innovative technologies for improving water use efficiency and storage, and strengthen climate resilience infrastructures to mitigate vulnerabilities and ensure the sustainability of regional water resources.